San Francisco Home Purchases Under $1 Million Fell 37% in September

Purchases below $1M

124 → 78

September 2025 versus September 2026

Change in count

−37.1%

46 fewer closings below the threshold

Share of all reported closings

26.1% → 16.3%

9.8 percentage points lower

Data: September 2025 versus September 2026. Published aggregate figures from Paulo Serna / Paulo’s Pulse; 2026 record through October 3. Sources checked October 29, 2026.

San Francisco recorded almost the same number of sales in the comparison set this September as last September. Purchases below $1 million fell by more than a third.

Paulo Serna’s published September report counts 78 closings below $1 million in September 2026, down from 124 a year earlier. Across all property types in that report, total closings edged from 476 to 480. The under-$1 million share therefore fell from 26.1% to 16.3%.

Both the count and the share fell

The count measures how many purchases actually cleared a fixed budget ceiling. The share measures how much of the observed market that budget reached. Read together, they answer a more useful buyer question than either measure alone.

A lower count can accompany a quieter market in which fewer homes sell at every price. A lower share can accompany a surge of expensive transactions even if the lower-price count holds steady. Here, the lower-price count fell while the overall total stayed nearly flat. That makes the change in the sales mix the central finding.

What the million-dollar ceiling means for a buyer

If $1 million is a firm purchase ceiling, start with homes that have closed within it. Asking prices are useful for finding candidates, but they are a poor substitute for a comparable-sales range. A home advertised below the ceiling can finish above it.

Keep the rest of the buying brief visible. Bedrooms, legal living area, parking, stairs, outdoor access and condition can change what a lower price buys. Compare the costs attached to the ownership type as well. HOA dues, assessments, insurance, repairs and financing can make two similarly priced homes very different household commitments.

Our guide to buying in San Francisco provides a starting checklist. If you are comparing a condo with a TIC, review what TIC ownership means and the TIC buying process before treating them as equivalent options.

What the figures do not tell us about the remaining homes

The threshold combines different properties. It cannot tell a buyer how many of the remaining purchases had a second bedroom, a usable garage, an outdoor area or a particular financing option. A sale below $1 million is a starting point for research. The property records and building documents determine whether it fits the brief.

The comparison also cannot follow individual homes across the threshold. A property may be absent because its owner did not sell, because it sold above the ceiling, or because it falls outside the publisher’s coverage. Identifying the contribution of each explanation would require transaction-level research. The observed change is in completed sales.

Use the SoMa and Mission Bay condo guide to investigate shared-building costs. Buyers concentrating on houses can use the affordable-neighborhood comparison and the Bayview and Excelsior guides to structure a search. Each linked report has its own period and property scope.

How this differs from our four-budget comparison

Our earlier article on what $1 million, $1.5 million, $2 million and $4 million buy asks which property types sold near each target price. Its $1 million band runs from $900,000 to $1.1 million. That band includes purchases above $1 million and leaves out purchases below $900,000.

This article uses a hard ceiling instead. Every reported purchase below $1 million belongs in the numerator, regardless of how far below it closed. Dividing that count by all closings in the same comparison set gives its market share. The two articles describe different aspects of a buyer’s options and use separately attributed sources.

The broader direction needs a separate comparison

A separate Boyenga Team price-band analysis reports that 28% of San Francisco house, condo and townhome sales closed below $1 million in full-year 2025, compared with 23% in January–September 2026. Its coverage and filters differ from the September comparison above; it does not establish a decline across every residential type. We keep those figures separate and do not compare a partial-year count with a full-year count as evidence of falling sales volume.

Testing the longer trend requires a comparison through the same cutoff in every year, with consistent geography and property coverage. September alone cannot establish how much of the shift persisted through the rest of the year.

Build the search around achieved prices

1. Set a final purchase ceiling and a separate reserve for closing expenses and initial work.
2. Review recent closed sales below that ceiling in the relevant ownership type.
3. Write down which features those purchases included and which tradeoffs they required.
4. Compare actual monthly costs, including any HOA charges and assessments.
5. Use current property-specific comparables before deciding on an offer. Review the appraisal-gap worksheet and offer-contingency guide alongside the financing plan.

The September evidence supports a clear conclusion: fewer purchases closed below $1 million, and those purchases represented a smaller portion of the reported market. For a buyer with a fixed ceiling, understanding the remaining options matters more than assuming the asking price will hold.