- Houses near $1.5M
- 39%
- Houses near $1M
- 27%
- Condo group near $4M
- 27%
38.7% of 568 sales in 2026 YTD; 57.8% in full-year 2024
27.3% in 2026 YTD, versus 39.2% in full-year 2024
26.8% in 2026 YTD, versus 12.2% in full-year 2020
Data: Owner-supplied TurboHome MLS summary: 2020–2025 full years; 2026 through October 29. Each budget represents a ±10% closing-price band, pooling property types. External context checked October 29, 2026.
A $1.5 million San Francisco budget crossed an important line this year: houses became the minority purchase. In 2024, 58% of closed sales near that price were single-family homes. In 2026 through October 29, the share was 39%. For buyers who expected a house at that price, the search became a different proposition.
The shift looks different at each budget. Near $1 million, the house share fell from 39.2% in 2024 to 27.3% in 2026. Near $2 million, houses remained a majority. Near $4 million, the condo group grew from 12.2% of sales in 2020 to 26.8% in 2026. The diagram below shows how the mix changed over the whole period.
How the sales mix changed at each budget
Closing prices $1.35M to $1.65M · Each year totals 100% of sales in this band.
Houses: 57.8% in 2024 → 38.7% in 2026 YTD19.1 percentage points lower.
Scroll across the diagram to see every year. Tap a year for its shares.
Source: owner-supplied TurboHome MLS summary. Ribbons show changing sales shares, not individual homes moving between property types. The condo group includes condos, townhouses and co-ops. “Other / residual” fills any shortfall to 100%; its composition is unspecified. Compare full years with 2026 YTD cautiously.
What each budget buys in San Francisco
| Target budget / actual band | Sales through Oct 29 | Median size, all types | Single-family share | Condo group / TIC | 3+ bedrooms, all types |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1M / $900,000–$1,100,000 | 370 | 1,001 sq ft | 27.3% | 63.8% / 8.4% | 18.4% |
| $1.5M / $1,350,000–$1,650,000 | 568 | 1,277 sq ft | 38.7% | 53.7% / 7.6% | 39.3% |
| $2M / $1,800,000–$2,200,000 | 480 | 1,562 sq ft | 56.9% | 38.5% / 4.6% | 62.9% |
| $4M / $3,600,000–$4,400,000 | 153 | 2,440 sq ft | 72.5% | 26.8% / 0.7% | 92.2% |
Source: owner-supplied TurboHome MLS summary, queried October 29, 2026. Condo group includes condominiums, townhouses and co-ops. Shares may not sum to 100% because of rounding or other classifications. Sales counts are band totals; field-specific valid-record counts were not supplied.
The practical choice is between combinations of location, ownership type, usable space, condition, and monthly cost. A larger purchase price improves the options, but it does not improve every feature at once. A central condo and a house farther from your preferred destination can belong to the same closing-price band.
$1 million: condo-heavy, with a smaller house segment
Near $1 million, 64% of 2026 sales were in the condo, townhouse and co-op group; 27% were single-family homes and about 8% were TICs. Across all types, the median size was 1,001 square feet. Fewer than one in five sales had three or more bedrooms.
That is a narrower set of options than the 2024 mix, when 39% of sales near $1 million were houses and 29% had at least three bedrooms. It still leaves an observed house segment. It does not tell us how many of those houses were move-in-ready, had parking, or provided the layout a particular buyer needed.
If owning a house is the priority, start with our affordable San Francisco neighborhood comparison, then investigate the Excelsior and Bayview guides alongside actual closed comparables. If a TIC offers a better fit, read what TIC ownership means before comparing it with a condo. Similar square footage does not make the ownership or financing interchangeable.
$1.5 million: the budget that changed character
This is the clearest shift in the table. In 2024, a majority of sales near $1.5 million were houses. In 2026, the condo group held the majority instead: 54% of sales, against 39% for houses and 8% for TICs. The share with three or more bedrooms fell from 53% to 39%.
The median size across all property types fell from 1,435 square feet in 2024 to 1,277 in 2026, about 11%. A buyer using a friend’s 2024 purchase as the benchmark may therefore be comparing today’s search with a materially different set of transactions.
For your shortlist, compare two separate searches: a house in the neighborhoods where recent closings fit your ceiling, and a condo or TIC with the location and layout you want. Use the Sunnyside and Ingleside guides as neighborhood research, and our SoMa and Mission Bay condo guide for building-level questions. Compare recent closings against your ceiling before scheduling tours.
$2 million: more houses, less space than the 2023 cohort
Houses accounted for 57% of sales near $2 million in 2026, close to the 2023 share. But the median size across the whole band fell by 316 square feet, from 1,878 to 1,562. The share with at least three bedrooms fell from 79% to 63%.
The size figure includes condos and TICs as well as houses. Within that pooled group, a nearly unchanged house share accompanied a smaller median home. A house-only size comparison would require a separate extract.
A separate benchmark in the supplied summary puts the 2026 median closing price for a three-bedroom, two-bath house at $1.9 million. That makes $2 million a useful reference point for that configuration, rather than an assurance of a large house in any chosen neighborhood. Compare the Inner Sunset, Outer Sunset, and West Portal through their actual homes and recent closings, not a citywide label alone.
$4 million: substantial choice, but a different mix
Near $4 million, 73% of sales were houses and 27% were in the condo group. More than nine in ten had at least three bedrooms. The median size was 2,440 square feet, down 19% from 2023 and 24% from 2020, the largest percentage decline among these four bands over either comparison.
There were 153 sales in the band through October 29, already more than the full-year totals for 2022 through 2025. More transactions did not translate into a larger median home. The condo-group share also rose from 12% in 2020 to 27% in 2026, which is one reason to examine the changing mix before interpreting the space comparison.
At this price, the useful next step is to compare the specific tradeoffs among a Noe Valley house, a Pacific Heights residence, and other homes that actually meet the brief, with floor plan, outdoor access, condition and ownership costs evaluated separately.
How much space did the same budget reach over time?
Select a budget; switch to Data for exact values. All property types pooled. The dashed final segment ends at partial-year 2026 through October 29; earlier points are full calendar years. Source: owner-supplied TurboHome summary. Different homes sold in each year; this is not a same-home value index.
| Budget | 2020 median | 2023 median | 2026 YTD median | Change vs 2023 | Change vs 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1M | 965 sq ft | 1,104 sq ft | 1,001 sq ft | -9% | +4% |
| $1.5M | 1,383 sq ft | 1,467 sq ft | 1,277 sq ft | -13% | -8% |
| $2M | 1,797 sq ft | 1,878 sq ft | 1,562 sq ft | -17% | -13% |
| $4M | 3,218 sq ft | 3,010 sq ft | 2,440 sq ft | -19% | -24% |
Changes calculated from supplied medians and rounded to whole percentages. Full-year versus YTD comparisons can reflect seasonality, neighborhood mix, property type, and condition as well as pricing.
Every band reached a smaller median home in 2026 than in 2023. The longer view is less uniform: the $1 million band still reached about 4% more space than in 2020, while the $4 million band was 24% below its 2020 median. That is why the comparison year belongs beside the headline.
The three-bedroom house benchmark moved faster than the condo benchmark
| Period | 3-bedroom / 2-bath house median | 2-bedroom / 2-bath condo median |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 YTD | $1,900,000 | $1,415,000 |
| 2025 | $1,575,000 | $1,250,000 |
| 2024 | $1,600,000 | $1,225,000 |
| 2023 | $1,500,000 | $1,225,000 |
| 2022 | $1,700,000 | $1,348,000 |
| 2021 | $1,705,000 | $1,350,000 |
| 2020 | $1,650,000 | $1,369,000 |
Source: separate owner-supplied TurboHome benchmark summary. Exact bedroom/bathroom cohorts; counts and field coverage were not supplied. The source does not clarify whether this benchmark’s condo definition uses the same grouped categories as the price-band table.
From 2023 to 2026 YTD, the three-bedroom, two-bath house benchmark rose from $1.5 million to $1.9 million, roughly 27%. The two-bedroom, two-bath condo benchmark rose from $1.225 million to $1.415 million, about 16%. These are different configurations and changing sets of sales. They illustrate the budget pressure without measuring an apples-to-apples house premium or predicting a future return.
Why the asking price can make your budget look larger
The supplied notes report a 125.3% median house sale-to-list ratio in 2026, compared with 104.6% in 2023. That describes the relationship between closing prices and seller-selected asking prices. It does not prove that houses sold 25.3% above fair value, or that a particular $1.6 million listing will close at $2 million.
Use achieved prices for comparable homes to establish the likely search range. Then review the property, set a ceiling and understand the cash consequences of an appraisal gap. Our guide to San Francisco offer contingencies explains the decisions that come after you have a defensible price range.
External reporting offers broader context. NPR’s September 1 report describes AI-sector wealth and limited housing choices intensifying competition. Redfin’s city housing-market page, checked October 29, reports a 14.9% year-over-year median-price increase for all home types over the three months ending September 2026. Neither source independently validates these TurboHome budget bands or isolates why their sales mix changed.
Turn a price point into a workable buying brief
- Set the final purchase ceiling first. Keep closing expenses, initial work and reserves separate from that price.
- Choose your non-negotiable features: ownership type, bedroom arrangement, usable outdoor access, parking, or location.
- Compare recent closed sales inside the relevant ownership type. Recheck square footage, legal layout, condition and parking rather than relying on one pooled median.
- Compare monthly costs using actual financing, taxes, insurance, HOA dues and assessments. Two homes at the same price can have different carrying costs.
- Check the neighborhood market reports for their own dates and samples, then narrow the comparison to the actual block and building.
The most useful question is what your budget reaches after you specify how you want to live. In these sales, $1.5 million tilted toward condos, $2 million still included a majority of houses, and $4 million reached a smaller median home than earlier cohorts. Your search becomes clearer when you decide which tradeoff you are prepared to make.
For a fixed ceiling, see our separate analysis of San Francisco purchases below $1 million. It compares the count and market share of September closings below that threshold, rather than the mix within a band around $1 million.
Questions buyers ask about these budgets
Common questions
Can you buy a house in San Francisco for $1 million?
The supplied summary includes houses: 27.3% of 2026 sales between $900,000 and $1.1 million were single-family homes. That does not establish current availability, condition, or whether a particular layout and location can be purchased at exactly $1 million.
What does $1.5 million buy in San Francisco in 2026?
In the $1.35 million to $1.65 million closing-price band, the median home sold measured 1,277 square feet across property types. The condo group accounted for 53.7% of sales, houses 38.7%, and TICs 7.6%. These figures describe 568 observed sales through October 29, not a current inventory search.
Is 1,562 square feet the median size of a $2 million house?
No. It is the median across the property types in the $1.8 million to $2.2 million closing-price band. Houses represented 56.9% of that band, but the supplied summary does not give a house-only square-footage median.
Do the figures show that my own home gained this much value?
No. Different homes sold in each period, and 2026 is a partial year. Changes can reflect location, condition, ownership type and seasonal mix. Use property-specific comparable sales rather than applying these percentages to an individual home.
Methodology
The owner supplied a TurboHome MLS sales summary with a stated warehouse query date of October 29, 2026. We transcribed its 28 price-band rows and seven separate bedroom/bathroom benchmark rows, checked arithmetic, and published the figures for inspection. We did not independently query the warehouse or audit individual transactions. Bands are ±10% around each budget. Earlier years are full calendar years; 2026 is YTD through October 29. Property types are pooled for size and price-band metrics. Condo group includes condominiums, townhouses and co-ops. Sales counts are band totals; field-specific valid-record counts, missing-data treatment, duplicate handling and exact boundary inclusion rules were not supplied. Bedroom and bathroom measures in the downloadable table are averages, not representative floor plans. Neighborhood shares from the supplied narrative are omitted because supporting geographic tables were not supplied. Separate exact-bedroom/bathroom benchmarks lack sample counts and a fully specified condo classification. Sale-to-list context is supplied narrative; the asking-price reference convention is unspecified. Full-year versus YTD and changing property mixes limit comparisons. No result is a same-home appreciation index, available-listing count, property appraisal or forecast. The external sources provide separately dated market context, not verification of the supplied bands.