Rent or buy a condo in San Francisco when mortgage rates top 7%?

National 30-year benchmark

7.32%

Freddie Mac, October 22, 2026 [3]

SF 1BR asking-rent median

$4,400

Monthly, September 2026 [1]

SF 2BR asking-rent median

$6,340

Monthly, September 2026 [1]

Data: MLS condo sales: January 1–October 22, 2026, extracted October 23. Asking rents: September 2026. Freddie Mac rate: October 22, 2026. SF tax: FY 2026–27. Worksheet purchase prices and other costs remain illustrative.

What renting really costs in San Francisco right now

For a San Francisco buyer, a mortgage payment is only the beginning of the rent-versus-buy comparison. HOA dues, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance can change the result substantially. Start with the same neighborhood, bedroom count, condition, parking, and amenities. Then compare the full monthly budget.

Zumper’s September 2026 report puts median asking rent at $4,400 for a one-bedroom and $6,340 for a two-bedroom in San Francisco. These are advertised-rent medians, not the average rent paid by all existing tenants or a quote for your next apartment. Patch’s September 30 reporting cites the same figures. [1, 2]

Your actual lease is more useful than a city median. Adjust for concessions, separately priced parking, utilities, pet charges, and renters insurance. A tenant already paying materially less than the advertised market may have a very different decision from someone moving into a new rental.

The rate and condo-price context

Freddie Mac reported a 7.32% national 30-year fixed mortgage average on October 22, 2026, versus 7.40% a week earlier and 6.19% a year earlier. That is a national application-based benchmark, not a lender quote for a particular San Francisco condo, borrower, or loan size. [3]

The supplied TurboHome MLS analysis records 1,817 San Francisco condo sales in January 1–October 22, 2026, with a $1,275,000 median sale price and $1,124 median price per square foot. The 2025 full-year median was $1,115,000. These are all-condo samples, not separate one- and two-bedroom medians or a matched-home appreciation measure. Our $900,000 and $1.4 million worksheet prices remain hypothetical inputs rather than estimates derived from those medians. [M]

The full monthly cost of owning a condo in SF

• Principal and interest: the payment on the actual loan amount, rate, and amortization.
• HOA dues: use the current budget and check what is included. The CFPB notes these are usually paid separately from the mortgage. [5]
• Property taxes: the SF Treasurer lists a 1.18162182% secured rate for FY 2026–27. Our model applies it to purchase price as a starting estimate, before exemptions and additional parcel charges. [6]
• Individual condo insurance: obtain an HO-6 or other appropriate quote and reconcile coverage with the association’s master policy.
• Maintenance and assessments: budget for the unit interior and building expenses that the HOA budget does not cover. Read reserve studies, meeting minutes, planned work, and any pending special assessments.
• Mortgage insurance, if required: add the lender’s actual quote. The examples assume 20% down and no PMI.

Avoid double-counting. If the HOA budget already includes master insurance or common-area reserves, do not add the same expense a second time. Conversely, a low monthly HOA payment does not establish that the building has adequate reserves or no major work ahead.

Side-by-side math at 7.32% and one percentage point lower

In these assumptions, renting requires less monthly cash, even with a rate one percentage point lower. The rate reduction saves about $480 a month on the 1BR loan and $747 on the 2BR loan. A lower rate alone does not erase HOA dues, taxes, or the difference between the selected purchase price and rent.

Equity, tax, and appreciation: what the monthly number leaves out

Principal repayment builds equity by reducing the loan balance. At the starting 7.32% rate, the examples repay about $554 and $862 of principal in the first month. That is different from interest, but it still comes out of the monthly budget. It is not a liquid savings account, and recovering equity depends on the property’s value, sale costs, and remaining debt.

The down payment also has an opportunity cost: money committed to the property is unavailable for another use. The worksheet shows down payment plus an editable closing-cost allowance, but does not turn an assumed investment return on that cash into a monthly expense. Compare that alternative separately, along with liquidity and emergency reserves.

Tax benefits are not automatic. The IRS explains that the home-mortgage-interest deduction generally requires itemizing and is subject to eligibility and debt limits. [7] Do not multiply every dollar of mortgage interest or property tax by a marginal tax rate and assume that amount is incremental savings. Have a tax adviser evaluate the actual federal and California result.

Appreciation can improve ownership economics; price declines can do the opposite. Selling and refinancing also have costs. This worksheet deliberately makes no appreciation, tax-savings, future-refinance, or rent-growth forecast. It answers a narrower question: what monthly cash budget do these inputs require?

When renting can win, and when buying can win

Buying a two-bedroom condo in San Francisco can be the right choice even if it costs more each month. Stability, control, and the ability to adapt the home have value. The test is whether the premium fits your finances and goals. Equally, renting can be a deliberate way to preserve flexibility and cash.

A simple worksheet you can rerun

Choose an example, replace the condo price and comparable rent, and enter a current lender quote. Update HOA dues from the building’s documents. Expand the additional costs to check taxes, individual insurance, reserves, PMI, parcel charges, renters insurance, and closing cash. Compare the result with both your current lease and a realistic next rental.